一种表面热流辨识结果的不确定度分析方法

An analysis method for the uncertainty of heat flux estimation

  • 摘要: 利用热防护层内部温度时序数据辨识表面热流,是获取高速飞行器表面热环境的重要手段。分析及量化辨识结果的不确定度,可为试验数据有效性提供量化标准,支撑热环境“极端工况”安全评估。表面热流辨识是一种典型的不适定问题,测量噪声中的高频成分会破坏解的稳定性,需要通过正则化获得稳定解。虽然正则化降低了估计结果的不确定性,但给不确定度分析制造了障碍。为此,将正则化看作低通滤波器,将辨识结果转换到频域来分析辨识结果的不确定度。最后,以典型飞行器温度测量组件的表面热流辨识为例,分析了不确定度来源,并利用蒙特卡洛方法验证了不确定度分析方法的有效性。

     

    Abstract: Identifying the surface aerodynamic heat flux using the time-series temperature data collected from internal measurement points of the thermal protection system is a crucial method for acquiring the surface thermal environment of high-speed aircraft. Analyzing and quantifying the uncertainty of identification results can provide a quantitative criterion for the validity of test data and support the safety assessment of “ extreme thermal service conditions" in thermal environments. Surface heat flux identification is a typical ill-posed problem, and measurement noise can lead to explosion in high frequency, so regularization is needed to obtain stable solution. Regularization reduces the uncertainty of estimation results, but it also brings obstacles to uncertainty quantification analysis. Therefore, regularization is regarded as a low-pass filter, and the identification results are transformed into the frequency domain to analyze the uncertainty of identification results. Finally, the uncertainty sources of typical aerospace surface heat flux sensor are analyzed. The effectiveness of uncertainty quantification is verified by Monte Carlo method.

     

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